Curse

Swingline · Nov 24, 2011, 06:44 PM // 18:44

I like your "screw it... your cheap" argument. It's teeming with intelligence.

Succumbing to lowly insults is a sure way to lose a debate and drop your maturity level at the same time. If you truly knew me you would know I have certain tastes and if I find something I want I offer a very good price. Unfortunately you think anyone who doesn't pay what a seller wants is a lowballer. So that's about 90% of the GWs population by your logic and every player should rip themselves off...

Me and many buyers are sick of having our time wasted by kids who have no value of time. There are a few lowballers but most buyers are sincere and give very good offers. Yet sellers are to stubborn to sell for even 1% less than what they want. Then there are the people who waste the time of others by posting fake sales, whether it be to acquire PCs or show off their wares to inflate their ego. I feel like a broken record here.

While there is no price stamped on an item other than what the merchant pays, its the buyers who set them. Sellers are just to stubborn to accept it. That is why we have items that stay up for months.

jimbo32 · Nov 24, 2011, 06:45 PM // 18:45

Ok, we've really gone off the rails at this point.

I think there's two schools of thought, and personally I agree with a bit of each. There's something to be said for buyers being aware of r/b and b/o before they bid, and in some cases it's really impossible for a seller to set those at the beginning of an auction. A good example would be the +10 vs demons/+45ench Bladed Shield from a few months ago - iirc, the consensus PC was 250-300e, and it ended up selling for ~800e. In cases like that, an open-ended auction obviously makes more sense (As far as the PC on the Bladed goes, I think there were probably a few conflict-of-interest price checks there, but that's another issue).

Anyway, can we agree to disagree on the issue of Guru Sell forum practices and move on with the discussion?

I originally started the thread because I was interested in hearing opinions on the current GW economy. It seems to me that prices are fairly volatile for some stuff, with certain items priced quite a bit higher than they traditionally had been over the past 2-3 years. Whether sellers are actually getting these prices on a regular basis, well...I have my doubts.

LicensedLuny · Nov 24, 2011, 07:00 PM // 19:00

If I contributed to the rage and flames in this thread, I am sorry! Seriously! That was never my intention.

It seems the average Guru-user's nature (if not simply the average human's nature) is to only bother posting when they don't like something. Folks who are perfectly content with something usually don't post.

I have been posting in this thread because I see a lot of posts from folks unhappy with some aspect of the system and calling for changes. The proposed changes strike me as bad ideas for a number of reasons, and I am happy with the system we have here more than the system I predict we'd have if any of these rule changes were enacted.

So I've been trying to resist my average Guru-user nature and take the time to speak up here, in order that the flow of posted comments does not risk appearing one-sided or "all in favor" to anyone reading, now or ever.

It's to the point now that I fear any more of my attempts to discuss the issue and point out flaws in the proposed plans will only serve to make people more angry and further derail jimbo's thread here.

I do sincerely apologize for any stress my comments caused anyone.

Cheers & Good luck!
Luny

carnage-runner · Nov 24, 2011, 07:29 PM // 19:29

PC's at this point are useless.. Whether it be conflict of interest or simple inability to actually predict the price of an item (the latter is my opinion), I think PC's on highend items has been pointless for a few years.

The highend market has been flooded with money, and because of that you get bid wars between people for some of the odd ball items that roll through, thus inflating prices. An example of that is the current desire to have shields with perfect mods. Years ago these shields were worth considerably less than they are now, relative to everything else. The same can be said for staves, wands, offhands, and caster items in general. My belief is that because the GW economy is based off an always inflating currency prices will always inflate. I also believe that the supply and demand ratios are interesting because the supply always increases (albeit at a somewhat steady rate [whether that is extremely slow, slow, or reasonably quick is irrelevant. It's steady]) and the demand always increases (at an extremely high rate because more people are making more money [And in my opinion they are making more money faster.])

So I think that you'll see this trend continue with the uninscribable weapons in particular. I also think it's too bad that WiK, HotN, and WoC didn't draw a larger crowd because had that happened there would have been a large influx of uninscribable weapons to the market which would have been interesting to watch (I believe it would be similar to the r8 15^50 drop in desire.. i.e everyone has what they want).

Anyways though... I am not really surprised with how things have worked out. I wish I had payed attention, as the trend was pretty easy to spot. Highend traders, particularly the minipet crowd, started buying up caster weapons. (The +5e stuff). So there was a huge influx of currency to that particular market. Before they started buying those items.. the prices were moderate, and in many cases less than their 15^50 counter part. As that started occurring more and more, the prices began to climb rapidly. Fairly easy to see now, but it was fairly obvious back then as well (retrospect is always 20/20)... People with money wanted certain things, and were willing to pay out big for them. The r8 15^50 market was almost abandoned. Many of the weapons were no longer that desired, and subsequently the market on them dropped significantly. (relative to everything else). I have two feelings with regard to the 15^50's... One feeling is that everyone was done collecting what they wanted, or at least everyone who had money to spend on them. The second feeling is that everyone jumped on board when +5e weapons started climbing in price, and because of that the currency allocation shifted from 15^50's to +5e's.

So now you're left with an economy that is stagnant in some areas, and increasing in other. It's almost impossible to predict because at any given time someone might log on and start a collection, or have a collection to sell. In my opinion, it's all relative to how much the richest players have, and what they want to buy/sell. i.e.... If you have 20,000 ecto.. or maybe more.. maybe you have 1500 arms, and you decide that you'd like to sell your collection of +10/-2e shields, or 20/20 staves, or 20/20 wands, or +5e swords... You go around and buy everything else, artificially inflating the prices and demands. Since people think it's the new thing to collect/trade they all go out and look for them, try to buy them, and try to sell them. Then once you've got a fair share of the market, and you have some of the more exceptional items, turn around and sell them. Make massive profits. Smart business imo. - endofconspiracyideas :P

So, that wraps up what I think of the current GW market. It's not broken, but it is what it is.. Ever inflating.. Ever responsive to trends.. And always eager to make some extra ecto. If you brake this message apart and criticize it I'd be happy... As I am going to review it before posting, I think it sums up what is the current state of the GW economy. There are lots of good weapons, there are lots of great weapons, there are tons of amazing items, and there's a massive amount of currency floating around, and not floating around. Nothing wrong with how people conduct their business, as it's just pixels in a game.

I think an r10 collection might be a good thing to get started on.. All the r9's are getting bought out. That or maybe 15^50's will make a huge comeback for mysterious reasons?... uhoh... what to do, what to do...

I hope this was reasonably on topic Jimbo, as I did try... With respect to your OP...

I think that Guru traders want the best price both to sell and buy, and will wait as long as possible to get it for the sake of getting a good deal. I think the exception is that some players just want to move items fast.

You're not the only one.. If you've read this far, then you probably saw that I have my theories about why that is as it is...

tL'dR: The gw economy is inflating by design. Item prices go up relative to what people desire. Prices can be artificially inflated extremely easily if you have the currency to do it. This will never change, and I think it's cool to watch and hope you get in on it.

jimbo32 · Nov 24, 2011, 08:10 PM // 20:10

Some good points there carnage.

I'm wondering if some of the inflation is due to the SC kiddies with tons of cash suddenly deciding that Tyrian/Canthan stuff is "kewl". For instance, I've noticed an increase in demand/price for OS Earth staves pretty much across the board - 20/20 Core skin, 20/10 Zodiac or Celestial, etc. Other than OF or SF sliver builds, I'm not sure who else would be using them.

That's obviously just one example, but assuming the above speculation is correct, maybe the same part of the GW community is driving up OS demand across the board. That, combined with a stagnant supply due to a declining player population, could explain why things are sorta all over the place.

I still don't get the high-ish prices for crappy or semi-crappy OS shields though. :P

Swingline · Nov 24, 2011, 08:54 PM // 20:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by carnage-runner

The gw economy is inflating by design

This is the only thing you have said that I agree with and it is a huge blunder of Anets.

Quote:

Originally Posted by carnage-runner

Prices can be artificially inflated extremely easily if you have the currency to do it. This will never change, and I think it's cool to watch and hope you get in on it.

I will never be on board with this. This is incredibly unethical even for a video game. There was a company that tried to artificially create demand and inflate the price of energy. That company was called Enron. The only reason this continues in GWs is there is no one to police people and the removal of certain items as drops allowed people to control the few remaining items. This is not a game where the person on the other end doesn't exist. People should not be ripping others off just to increase the pixel count in their storage.

In the end you and I are two different people. I am a person not driven by greed.

I believe this has reached its end.

/endofdiscussion

carnage-runner · Nov 24, 2011, 10:04 PM // 22:04

Swingline... I never said I agreed with the tactics I suggested. I am merely stating that it is a possibility. The knowledge that people have tons of money, and control over certain markets is a fact in this game. Also... It does happen in real life. They are called collectors. Your example of Enron.. meh. People who collect things can drive up the price.

You're right about 1 thing. This conversation is over. We are two completely different people. I am accepting of what is, and that it will not change, and have learned to adapt to it. You are obstinate in your thoughts, and would rather blame someone else than realize that things are, and you have to adapt if you want to succeed.

Onto Jimbo.

SC'ers is the most likely source for all the new-found riches in GW. Seeing as you can farm an armbrace in less than 2 hours in a few different guilds/alliances, that adds a fairly large amount of currency into the game. I wouldn't dare speculate without first posting a disclaimer that.. I'm probably wrong...

Lol'ing around speculating on GW's economy... Don't open unless you're ready for text spam, ridiculous numbers, and a lot of guesswork...

So. In conclusion on that topic.. Yes. SC'ers are helping drive up prices. Why do I say this? Because I was an SC'er, and probably will be one again. It is easy money. It is fast money. It is safe money.

So using that ... concept from hell... There is an enormous amount of money coming into the game daily... As a result of that... Everything will go up in prices.. duh.. BUT.. What also occurs is that lucky ol' ... anyone with a cool skin/weapon/item gets to sell it for WAY MORE MONEY!!! So.. now that I have 52000 ecto because my r8 collection of shields/weapons, and my 8 minis (I got 2 years ago for dirt cheap) all sold for insane amounts of money because there's more currency in the game and in everyone's pocket... It means that I can start that ornate buckler collection I've always wanted to start... It means I'll pay anything just to have that +30 +1 20% Death because.. I really really want it... But it also means I'll pay anything minus an arbitrary amount for a +29 +1 19%. But wait... Someone else wants to collect the exact same Ornate Buckler skin... Well. I have more money than him.. I'll just outbid him.

Etc. You can see how this would get out of hand really really quick.

SO! what this creates is an artificial demand. Because 2 people really really want something it means that anyone with something like it, now expects more. I'm using fake numbers/items btw.. And no.. I don't have 52000 ecto, or an r8 collection, or 8 minis (that would be worth insane ecto) so.. yea, just an example.

So as you can see... Something like that above is perfectly reasonable to assume to be true because.. Well.. It has obviously happened. Stuff that was expensive back in 06 cost 150-200e.. Those same things in some cases are worth 1000's of ecto now. Relative to everything else in the game, some things came out better than others. Because of that, people made lots of money. Because of that.. they chose to spend it on random things, or very specific things.. Because of that.... Random things, and sometimes very specific things became very expensive.

I don't mean to waste everyone's time, and overload this thread with nonsense... so..

tL;dR: Money money money.. make collectors rich.. start new collection of random stuff... make other people rich... more richness everywhere, everything becomes expensive as more peoples interest inflate the prices of more things... The trend continues, exponentially as everyone becomes interested in everything because they have money to spend, and all of a sudden the economy collapses and everyone's bankrupt and their guildhalls are repo'd by anet because they didn't make payments on the loan. Or something like that

LicensedLuny · Nov 24, 2011, 10:57 PM // 22:57

Consider that the addition of ectos and armbraces into the market from SC popularity is adding more commodities or alternative currencies, and not as much actual gold or platinum. (Sorry, I don't know all the correct economic vocabulary.)

I would think it's the addition of new currency - actual gold and platinum - into the economy that really causes inflation. If all that was going on was more and more ectos and armbraces coming into the system, then the "cash value" of said ectos and armbraces would simply drop, no? The players get used to certain average prices and don't react instantly to changes, sure, but eventually the cash value of ectos and armbraces does adjust with shifts in the economy. (A couple years ago 1e~5k and 1arm~50e were pretty standard averages.)

The newly produced ectos and armbraces keep what value they do have, at least in part, because there is enough new gold/plat added to the market on a regular basis thanks to cash rewards from quests along with gold drops and merchfood sales.

I agree that the end result is inflation and the increasing "fair market values" of rare items with limited or zero new supply. I'm simply not sure it's correct to blame it entirely on DoA and/or UW SCing.

carnage-runner · Nov 24, 2011, 11:29 PM // 23:29

I'm sorry if I gave the impression I was blaming anything on anyone. I'm merely stating what I have observed, and I have left out a massive amount of information... Had I included everything regarding the GW economy this would be pages long. I was referring to an extremely small community of players, and excluding the vast majority of casual gamers who merch stuff all day, buy stuff from the traders, etc... Keeping the gold levels in the game high.

The SC'ers, and particularly the DoAsc'ers and UWsc'ers are introducing the main highend currency; ectos and armbraces.

The casual gamers are introducing the cash to moderate the market levels.

Everyone else is contributing on both fronts.

I wouldn't even want to venture any guess with regards to speculating how much new currency is generated every day, and what the cash flow levels are at all merchants and all drops/rewards. I think it would be super cool to know, but the numbers would be staggering. Maybe Anet has a counter and can tell us each days total for a full week? That would be insanely cool.

LicensedLuny · Nov 24, 2011, 11:53 PM // 23:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by carnage-runner

I'm sorry if I gave the impression I was blaming anything on anyone.

I didn't mean "blame" in a negative context. It's just that I noticed a possible flaw/omission in your theory, that's all. (and I don't mean "flaw" in a negative context either!)

Quote:

I think it would be super cool to know, but the numbers would be staggering. Maybe Anet has a counter and can tell us each days total for a full week? That would be insanely cool.

/signed! That would be incredibly interesting! And it would surely shed fascinating light on discussions like jimbo's original intent for this thread.

Elnino · Nov 25, 2011, 01:40 AM // 01:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by carnage-runner

Very informative stuff

So basically, anyone who isn't a trader and isn't an Sc'er has no hope?

carnage-runner · Nov 25, 2011, 02:37 AM // 02:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elnino

So basically, anyone who isn't a trader and isn't an Sc'er has no hope?

I didn't say that. Either of those things... If you don't trade or do sc's then you might not have what someone who does those things has. There are exceptions, like all things, but the exception is not the rule.

expugnare · Nov 25, 2011, 02:56 AM // 02:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elnino

So basically, anyone who isn't a trader and isn't an Sc'er has no hope?

Not at all true. I guess that I'm a "collector" in the truest sense of the word--that is I sell nearly nothing, and almost never try to sell my items after buying them.

That being said, the way I made money was by running people through missions/dungeons for quite a long time. Doing something like that is both more challenging/rewarding than SCing (in my opinion) and certainly just as if not more profitable. Understandably not everyone can do something like that, but there are numerous avenues to make money in this game, not just SC and powertrading.

To be more in the vein of the original nature of the thread, I'd like to add that unfortunately there really is a lot of unethical iflation/deflation of items because of very wealthy people. Why exactly is a r8 +5e Zodiac Sword suddenly worth 750e when it used to be maybe 200e a few months ago--conversely why was a r9 Fire Wayward Wand 20 HCT / +5e^50 PCed at 100k (if you know wands, you know this is basically a holy grail level item, especially for such a desired attribute--you could easily find 5 r8 +5e Zodiac Swords before ever even seeing a comparable scepter)? It all seems very fishy to me, and a lot of the dealings with the GW high end economy makes me think that many powertraders are downright unethical, or just misinformed. Honestly, I think there is tremendous artificial demand in this game by the extremely wealthy, and it's very frustrating to behold.

Anyway, just my 2cents--this thread was really long and I didn't follow all the arguments, so if I've repeated what someone has said/insulted anyone, I'm sorry.

Anyway, really interesting thread Jimbo.

Toodles,
Yuko

Dzan · Nov 25, 2011, 07:54 PM // 19:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by expugnare

Why exactly is a r8 +5e Zodiac Sword suddenly worth 750e when it used to be maybe 200e a few months ago--conversely why was a r9 Fire Wayward Wand 20 HCT / +5e^50 PCed at 100k (if you know wands, you know this is basically a holy grail level item, especially for such a desired attribute--you could easily find 5 r8 +5e Zodiac Swords before ever even seeing a comparable scepter)? It all seems very fishy to me, and a lot of the dealings with the GW high end economy makes me think that many powertraders are downright unethical, or just misinformed. Honestly, I think there is tremendous artificial demand in this game by the extremely wealthy, and it's very frustrating to behold.

Supply/Demand

The supply of that wand is much lower than the sword, you are absolutely correct. However, the demand for that wand is also lower than the sword. The ratio between the two determines the price. If you believe that more people want those wands than those swords, you're wrong.

expugnare · Nov 25, 2011, 08:09 PM // 20:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dzan

Supply/Demand

The supply of that wand is much lower than the sword, you are absolutely correct. However, the demand for that wand is also lower than the sword. The ratio between the two determines the price. If you believe that more people want those wands than those swords, you're wrong.

Obviously, but its also a lot more complicated than that. That pricecheck I quoted to you was probably driven by ignorance (obviously an item that good isn't worth only 100k; I've had more experienced traders value something like that at over 500e). But, this highlights what I think is a critical aspect of the GW economy--ignorance informs much of the people out there. That's why Guru's PC forum is always so active; people don't know what an item is worth, and it allows people to designate a price. Do I necessarily think that people were lowballing that scepter in order to get it for 100k from me? Not necessarily, but when misinformation is so prevalent, people are inclined to follow it as if it is accurate. Indeed, for more"obscure" items like that wand (or, perhaps a much better example, the q8 14^50 Dwarven Axe that sold for only 450e recently) people, especially new people, really have no idea what they are worth, and rely on people's opinions. People with less interest in these items undervalue the, they lose popularity and boom, suddenly they are worth far less than what they were/really should be. There was a time that Dwarven Axe wouldn't have sold for less than 2000e+; but with the lack of demand that is really at its core driven by ignorance or lack of interest, it has dwindled in value.

Similarly, newer people would be very inclined to believe that a q8 +5e Zodiac Sword is worth 1000e (which is totally ridiculous) because its suddenly popular, not to mention the limited supply created by some of the big traders that own the majority of those items. Really, a lot of the Guild Wars economy is dictated by what is trending, and the idea of what is trending is in many ways controlled by big traders. Big traders/SC Guilds suddenly start buying up all the q8 swords? Bam, they quadrupe-quintuple in price because demand skyrocketed. What alot of people aren't aware of is who/what exactly is creating this demand (be it natural or artificial), and I think that is at the core of this mystery.

I can't really offer anything more than an educated guess at it, which in itself is sort of useless, so I'm going to stop there and let other people figure it out.

carnage-runner · Nov 25, 2011, 08:23 PM // 20:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dzan

Supply/Demand

The supply of that wand is much lower than the sword, you are absolutely correct. However, the demand for that wand is also lower than the sword. The ratio between the two determines the price. If you believe that more people want those wands than those swords, you're wrong.

The discussion has taken into consideration supply/demand. It's the fact that there's probably at least a half dozen r8 +5e zodiac swords floating around right now, whereas that wand is likely 1 of only a couple. It's obvious that the prices on certain things are going up high, and it's mysteriously the same people bidding on all these items, and subsequently it's the same people who now own most all of these things.

Swingline · Nov 25, 2011, 09:34 PM // 21:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by expugnare

Obviously, but its also a lot more complicated than that. That pricecheck I quoted to you was probably driven by ignorance (obviously an item that good isn't worth only 100k; I've had more experienced traders value something like that at over 500e). But, this highlights what I think is a critical aspect of the GW economy--ignorance informs much of the people out there. That's why Guru's PC forum is always so active; people don't know what an item is worth, and it allows people to designate a price. Do I necessarily think that people were lowballing that scepter in order to get it for 100k from me? Not necessarily, but when misinformation is so prevalent, people are inclined to follow it as if it is accurate. Indeed, for more"obscure" items like that wand (or, perhaps a much better example, the q8 14^50 Dwarven Axe that sold for only 450e recently) people, especially new people, really have no idea what they are worth, and rely on people's opinions. People with less interest in these items undervalue the, they lose popularity and boom, suddenly they are worth far less than what they were/really should be. There was a time that Dwarven Axe wouldn't have sold for less than 2000e+; but with the lack of demand that is really at its core driven by ignorance or lack of interest, it has dwindled in value.

Similarly, newer people would be very inclined to believe that a q8 +5e Zodiac Sword is worth 1000e (which is totally ridiculous) because its suddenly popular, not to mention the limited supply created by some of the big traders that own the majority of those items. Really, a lot of the Guild Wars economy is dictated by what is trending, and the idea of what is trending is in many ways controlled by big traders. Big traders/SC Guilds suddenly start buying up all the q8 swords? Bam, they quadrupe-quintuple in price because demand skyrocketed. What alot of people aren't aware of is who/what exactly is creating this demand (be it natural or artificial), and I think that is at the core of this mystery.

I can't really offer anything more than an educated guess at it, which in itself is sort of useless, so I'm going to stop there and let other people figure it out.

The ignorant are the ones most likely to follow trends, including prices.

Wands have always been unpopular. The main reason is a perfect 20/20 matching attribute gold wand is so butt RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOing rare. Its like a game of tick tack toe you never win and since there's the end game wayward wand greens yours will not get the appreciation it deserves from the casual GW player. Also +5e^50 is scoffed at nowadays. It's all about the 20/20s.

I saw a collector price a Q8 +5e Zodiac Sword for 300e in the PC section. Then he was trying to sell in the buy section for 700e. I am actually all for power trading as long as your not lying through your teeth but something is very fishy about pcing an item for 300e then trying to sell it for 700e.

Kiki Go Boom · Nov 25, 2011, 10:10 PM // 22:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swingline

I saw a collector price a Q8 +5e Zodiac Sword for 300e in the PC section. Then he was trying to sell in the buy section for 700e. I am actually all for power trading as long as your not lying through your teeth but something is very fishy about pcing an item for 300e then trying to sell it for 700e.

That guy doesn't represent all of the high-end traders. Thankfully, the guy who posted above him asked for a much more reasonable price and someone will eventually ask for a much more reasonable amount for a celestial than the 750e that guy asked. Patience is a virtue.

IMO, let the power-traders do what they want. There's nothing wrong about wanting to make some kind of profit from your investment. Only people that can stop them is anet. Just be patient and eventually you'll find a genuine guy who will sell for a genuine price. Only problem is getting to those guys before the power traders

ACWhammy · Nov 26, 2011, 02:02 AM // 02:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by carnage-runner

The gw economy is inflating by design.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swingline

This is the only thing you have said that I agree with and it is a huge blunder of Anets.

Just curious, what could Anet do to prevent massive inflation? Have more gold sinks? Have a "tax?" What have other MMO's done to prevent this kind of thing? o.O

carnage-runner · Nov 26, 2011, 07:00 AM // 07:00

Hey it could be worse guys... You could be like the rest of us folk who CAn't afford any of this stuff... Driving the prices up on some things and making other things ABSOLUTELY GARBAGE! Sigh... I'm not overly optimistic, I just think I got shafted on the market trend :P